Abstract
BackgroundSpatial conservation prioritisation (SCP) is a set of computational tools designed to support the efficient spatial allocation of priority areas for conservation actions, but it is subject to many sources of uncertainty which should be accounted for during the prioritisation process. We quantified the sensitivity of an SCP application (using software Zonation) to possible sources of uncertainty in data-poor situations, including the use of different surrogate options; correction for sampling bias; how to integrate connectivity; the choice of species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithm; how cells are removed from the landscape; and two methods of assigning weights to species (red-list status or prediction uncertainty). Further, we evaluated the effectiveness of the Egyptian protected areas for conservation, and spatially allocated the top priority sites for further on-the-ground evaluation as potential areas for protected areas expansion.ResultsFocal taxon (butterflies, reptiles, and mammals), sampling bias, connectivity and the choice of SDM algorithm were the most sensitive parameters; collectively these reflect data quality issues. In contrast, cell removal rule and species weights contributed much less to overall variability. Using currently available species data, we found the current effectiveness of Egypt’s protected areas for conserving fauna was low.ConclusionsFor SCP to be useful, there is a lower limit on data quality, requiring data-poor countries to improve sampling strategies and data quality to obtain unbiased data for as many taxa as possible. Since our sensitivity analysis may not generalise, conservation planners should use sensitivity analyses more routinely, particularly relying on more than one combination of SDM algorithm and surrogate group, consider correction for sampling bias, and compare the spatial patterns of predicted priority sites using a variety of settings. The sensitivity of SCP to connectivity parameters means that the responses of each species to habitat loss are important knowledge gaps.
Highlights
Spatial conservation prioritisation (SCP) is a set of computational tools designed to support the efficient spatial allocation of priority areas for conservation actions, but it is subject to many sources of uncertainty which should be accounted for during the prioritisation process
As the focus of this study is the evaluation of Zonation, we only give an overview of the Species distribution models (SDMs)-approach here
The main factor affecting the sensitivity of prioritisation (Fig. 1) was the choice of surrogate group, followed by correction for sampling bias, the strength of connectivity, and the choice of SDM algorithm
Summary
Spatial conservation prioritisation (SCP) is a set of computational tools designed to support the efficient spatial allocation of priority areas for conservation actions, but it is subject to many sources of uncertainty which should be accounted for during the prioritisation process. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) agreed a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, including the Aichi targets [15], two of which address threatened species (target 12) and an expansion of the global PA network to cover at least 17% of terrestrial land and 10% of coastal and marine areas by 2020 (target 11). Implementing these requires substantial effort to avoid creating PAs that exist purely as legal fictions (‘paper parks’: [16]). Since it is impossible to conserve all species and habitats simultaneously, limited conservation resources should be strategically and effectively prioritised [3]
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