Spatial (a)synchrony in population fluctuations of five plant species in fragmented habitats

Abstract

Abstract The spatial scale at which populations show synchronous temporal fluctuations in abundance, relative to the spatial scale over which they can disperse, may influence the persistence of local and regional populations. There have been frequent demonstrations of spatial synchrony in population dynamics of animal populations. But few studies have investigated the degree of spatial synchrony in less mobile taxa, e.g. plants, where life history, dispersal and interaction with the environment would be different due to a sessile phase. This study has during three years investigated the synchrony in local population size changes in four short-lived species, and during a nine-year period for one long-lived species, in a semi-natural grassland landscape in southern Sweden. The spatial scale of this study was less than 15 km, which is quite small in comparison with other studies, but the temporal scale was of similar magnitude as the few studies on plant abundances and synchrony. When using detrended estimates of population size change, a significant pattern of decreasing synchrony with increasing distance was found for the two short-lived species that were most confined to manage semi-natural grasslands. Spatial synchrony was detected up to a few km. However, the species displayed synchrony in different years. The degree of synchrony can thus vary considerably across years and among species. Spatially autocorrelated weather conditions could partly explain the spatial scale of synchrony found during certain time intervals. However, the prevailing asynchrony suggests that local factors dominate the dynamics of the populations at the investigated scale.