Spatial assessment of losses in wheat production value: A need for an innovative approach to guide risk management policies

Abstract

Despite the importance of wheat production, it does not fully meet the population's needs and the wheat producers denounce reduced margins. Considering its impact on the socio-economic conditions in rural areas, risk of losses in wheat production value has been analyzed at the level of 34 provinces, representing 70% of the total wheat cropping area in Morocco. To achieve this analysis, we adopted in this study an innovative approach that takes into account of both phenological stages of wheat crops in time and space, as well as the technological difference between different production units. First, the intensity of the risk of loss in wheat production value was estimated at the spatial scale using a new Production Value Intensity Index (PV_I), proposed in this research. Then, the probability of the identified risk was measured during the studied years (2001–2016). Taking into account variations in both spatial and temporal scales, the results identify four categories of agricultural areas according to their risk level of loss in wheat production value. The last one, accounting for 20.13% of total agricultural area, was the most affected by the loss in wheat production value. Overall, the followed approach, using PV_I index, allows an efficient identification, localization and evaluation of the risks associated to wheat productivity loss at the spatiotemporal scales and will helps decision-makers to implement a risk monitoring strategy.