Spatial Approach to Contribution of Public Policies to the Dynamization of the Rural Population

Abstract

In this article we will analyze the results, in terms of population, of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, in a small European region, of one million inhabitants, with geographical characteristics typical of mountain agriculture. We will use spatial econometric techniques to verify whether the hypothesis that public spending destined for direct subsidization contributes positively to the territorial dynamics of certain relevant economic variables is fulfilled, specifically we will study in our case the population variable. From a methodological point of view, we will use several complementary approaches that give solidity to the results, always from the focus of spatial econometrics, essential when working with territorial data at a low level of disaggregation. On the one hand, we will carry out an exploratory spatial data analysis, which will allow us to detect possible patterns of spatial dependence, and then move on to a confirmatory analysis that will consider both, autocorrelation (models of lag and spatial error) and spatial heterogeneity (switching regressions). In addition to this cross-sectional data approach, which is based on a method of estimating the particular to the general, we will also use the estimation of spatial models of panel data, to include a temporal approach, with a method of estimating the general to the particular. The best results are obtained with a Spatial Durbin Model.