Spatial and temporal variations in fractional vegetation cover and its driving factors in the Hulun Lake region

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are critical to fractional vegetation cover (FVC). However, until now, their combined effects on FVC have not been well quantified. In this paper we analyze the temporal and spatial variations in the fractional vegetation cover in the Hulun Lake region from 1986 to 2017 and its response to changes in climate parameters and human activities; additionally, the impact of changes in climate parameters and human activities on FVC are discussed. The results showed that according to the Mann-Kendall (M−K) trend test analysis, 65.01% of the FVC in the Hulun Lake region decreased to varying degrees, of which 24.55% showed a significant decrease and only 8.61% increased significantly. Based on the M−K mutation test analysis of FVC and analysis of driving factors from 1986 to 2017, 1999 was the time point at which abrupt changes in FVC, annual precipitation and moisture index occurred in the Hulun Lake region, and water was an important factor affecting FVC. The regression analysis of FVC and the driving factors from 1986 to 2017 showed that the moisture index and the number of livestock could not be eliminated from the regression equation. Additionally, there was a significant correlation between the FVC and the climate livestock index (P < 0.001). Linear regression model constructed by FVC and climatic livestock index: y = 23.016ln(x)-31.454 (R2 = 0.5941), FVC increased with the increase of climatic livestock index.