Abstract
In our study, we used an improved Bayesian method based on a basis spline (B-spline) function to estimate the spatial and temporal variations of b-values in Southwest China. We propose that b-values combined with seismicity and tectonic background can provide a fairly clear stress condition and can be used in earthquake hazard analysis. Very low b-values in Southwest China appear to be related to the 2008 $$M_s\,8.0$$ Wenchuan earthquake. We also suggest that the decreasing b-value trend in the Longmen Shan area from 2000 to 2008 may be an indicator of the 2008 $$M_s\,8.0$$ Wenchuan earthquake.
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