Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Ecological Environment Quality in China from 2002 to 2019 and Influencing Factors

Abstract

Since the beginning of the new century, there has been a notable enhancement in China’s ecological environment quality (EEQ), a development occurring in tandem with climate change and the extensive ecological restoration projects (ERPs) undertaken in the country. However, comprehensive insights into the spatial and temporal characteristics of China’s EEQ, and its responses to both climate change and human activities over the past two decades, have remained largely elusive. In this study, we harnessed a combination of multi-source remote-sensing data and reanalysis data. We employed Theil–Sen median trend analysis, multivariate regression residual analysis, and the Hurst index to examine the impacts and changing patterns of climatic factors and human activities on China’s EEQ during the past two decades. Furthermore, we endeavored to forecast the future trajectory of EEQ. Our findings underscore a significant improvement in EEQ across most regions of China between 2002 and 2019, with the most pronounced enhancements observed in the Loess Plateau, Northeast China, and South China. This transformation can be attributed to the combined influence of climatic factors and human activities, which jointly accounted for alterations in EEQ across 78.25% of China’s geographical expanse. Human activities (HA) contributed 3.93% to these changes, while climatic factors (CC) contributed 17.79%. Additionally, our projections indicate that EEQ is poised to continue improving in 56.70% of China’s territory in the foreseeable future. However, the Loess Plateau, Tarim Basin, and Inner Mongolia Plateau are anticipated to experience a declining trend. Consequently, within the context of global climate change, the judicious management of human activities emerges as a critical imperative for maintaining EEQ in China. This study, bridging existing gaps in the literature, furnishes a scientific foundation for comprehending the evolving dynamics of EEQ in China and informs the optimization of management policies in this domain.