Spatial and temporal variation and driving factors of ecological carrying capacity in the Pan-Pearl River Basin, China

Abstract

The Pan-Pearl River Basin (PPRB) has acted as a pioneer region of China’s reform and opening-up with rapid economic development. Quantitatively clarifying the evolution of ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is vital for the sustainable development of PPRB. Therefore, this study combined a comprehensive evaluation method of the pressure-state-response (PSR) index system with the ecological footprint based on net primary productivity (EF-NPP) method to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity (CECC) in the PPRB from 2002 to 2019 with the development of economy and society. The random forest regression method was then used to analyze the factors driving ECC and the exponential smoothing was used to predict the future trend in the ECC and CECC of the PPRB. The results indicated that the rapid development of the economy of the PPRB coincided with some resource consumption and environmental damage. But the ECC and the CECC of the PPRB will improve continuously over the next six years according to the prediction results of exponential smoothing method. The per-capita ECC of the PPRB increased from the southern coastal area to the northern inland area. The ECC of Hunan Province decreased significantly during 2007–2010 and the ECC of Guangdong Province increased significantly during 2015–2019. The main factors influencing ECC included the damage of the ecological environment and economic development. These two driving factors showed a “U”-shaped relationship to the ECC of the PPRB, indicating a gradual emergence of the harmony of economic development and ecological damage. This study provides a theoretical basis for the ecological restoration and comprehensive ecological management in the PPRB.