Abstract
This work aimed to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the response of Tempranillo variety within the Toro Designation of Origin (DO) and the potential changes under climate change scenarios. The research included the analysis of phenology (bud break, bloom, veraison and maturity) and grape composition at harvest recorded in plots located at seven locations in the DO, at elevations between 667 and 779 m above the sea level (a.s.l.). Changes in phenology and composition were projected for 2050 and 2070 under two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering the predicted changes in climate variables using an ensemble of models. Variations in the phenological timing of up to 28 days for bud break, bloom and veraison and up to 30 days for maturity were recorded during the period analysed and titratable acidity varied between 4 and 8 gL-1. The variability in phenology and grape acidity was mainly driven by temperature and available water in different periods between phenological stages, although the effect of soil properties was also confirmed. Under warmer conditions, an advance of all phenological phases was projected (up to 6, 6, 8 and 12 days by 2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario and near double under the RCP8.5 scenario). In addition, a decrease in titratable acidity is projected (about 1.1 and 1.4 gL-1 by 2050, respectively, under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenario and up to 2.0 gL-1 by 2070 under the warmest scenario). The results were in agreement with the variability observed in years with contrasting weather conditions.
Highlights
Within the main elements of «terroir» that condition the vine response, the climate is probably the one that has the greatest influence
The objective of this research was to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of vine phenology and some grape composition parameters of the Tempranillo variety in the Toro Designation of Origin (DO) related to the weather conditions recorded at present, and how could be it affected under future climate change scenarios
The variability of the response of the Tempranillo cultivar in Toro DO has been documented based on the observed relationship between phenology and grape composition with temperature and available water
Summary
Within the main elements of «terroir» that condition the vine response, the climate is probably the one that has the greatest influence. Climate change will likely give rise to warmer temperatures and lower water availability during the growing cycle, which might affect the suitability of certain cultivars in a given area. Studies carried out in different viticultural areas have shown the effect of increasing temperatures on phenology and the growing cycle length (Duchêne and Schneider, 2005; Pieri et al, 2012; Webb et al, 2012; Koufos et al, 2014; Ramos and Jones, 2018; among others). Land and crop management will be important to mitigate the effects of climate change on vines and to maintain grape quality under warmer conditions. To establish the best practices, it is important to accumulate evidence of the differences in the vine response under different weather conditions that already occur
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