Spatial and Temporal Statistical Modeling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease and its Characteristics in China: A Review

Abstract

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been reported in all 31 provinces of mainland China and has become one of the most common infectious diseases in China. Here we review its spatial and temporal patterns in China and related statistical modeling. Methods: We systematically reviewed the literature on the epidemic characteristics and related models proposed to reveal its spatial and temporal patterns of HFMD in mainland China. Results: In mainland China, HFMD is usually caused by enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16). The incidence of HFMD had one or two peaks in a year and presented obvious seasonality. The incidence rate of HFMD was associated with geographical factors, social factors and meteorological variables but it was different in some areas. In most regions of China, the incidence of HFMD was not a random distribution and presented a complex regularity. In this paper, we summarized the spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatial-temporal clustering analysis and time series analysis to the spatial and temporal distribution of HFMD.