Abstract
AbstractThe atmospheric water cycle is a key component of the global energy and moisture exchange. In order to gain better understanding of the atmospheric processes and temporal variability and trends affecting precipitation in Crimea, we use a Lagrangian moisture source detection technique based on reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. The study presents a quantitative picture of the major moisture sources that feed precipitation on the Crimean peninsula from February 1979 to January 2017. In total 51.3% of moisture stems from marine sources. Specifically, the main individual contributors are the Mediterranean Sea (15.3%), the Black Sea (14.4%), and the North Atlantic Ocean (13.9%). Continental moisture recycling contributes additional 46.9%. The amounts of moisture contribution from marine and continental sources and their respective moisture transport pathways are subject to strong seasonality. Winter precipitation in Crimea is predominantly sourced by the Mediterranean Sea. Long‐term temporal trends in contribution from any of the major moisture sources are absent during the study period. Statistically significant negative correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and contribution from moisture sources exists in winter for the Mediterranean (R = −0.22) and Black Seas (R = −0.23), and for the southern continental moisture source (R = −0.37). The North Atlantic Ocean moisture source exhibits a statistically significant positive correlation with NAO index during spring (R = 0.32).
Highlights
In the years following the Crimean crisis and the ensued closure in 2014 of the North Crimean Canal, which supplied water from Dnieper river into Crimea, the internal water resources of the Crimean peninsula started to fall short of meeting the economic and domestic needs of the region (Dzhamalov et al, 2018; Kayukova & Yurovsky, 2017)
Significant negative correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and contribution from moisture sources exists in winter for the Mediterranean (R = −0.22) and Black Seas (R = −0.23), and for the southern continental moisture source (R = −0.37)
This study presents a comprehensive picture of the precipitation water sources for the Crimean peninsula from 1979 to 2017
Summary
In the years following the Crimean crisis and the ensued closure in 2014 of the North Crimean Canal, which supplied water from Dnieper river into Crimea, the internal water resources of the Crimean peninsula started to fall short of meeting the economic and domestic needs of the region (Dzhamalov et al, 2018; Kayukova & Yurovsky, 2017). The sea surface temperature of the Black Sea increased at 0.67°C per decade in 1982–2012 (Meredith et al, 2015; Reynolds et al, 2007) These warming trends are four to six LANGHAMER ET AL. There are large-scale changes in the hydrological water cycle underway, and the question arises whether the observed changes of water bodies and climate affect the moisture sources and precipitation on the Crimean peninsula. In this analysis we identify moisture sources for Crimea, evaluate their coupling to large-scale processes, show characteristic synoptic patterns and indicative pathways to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric water cycle affecting Crimean’s precipitation
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