Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Commercial Burglaries

Abstract

Abstract. The factors that are crucial in predicting burglary of commercial establishments are evaluated. Burglars are rational in their choice of target, in that they consider both the revenue generated by the burglary and the chances of being apprehended. Location of the target plays a major role; establishments located within three blocks of heavily travelled thoroughfares are less vulnerable to burglary than those located further away. The wealthier the community, the higher the probability of burglary of its commercial establishments. Retail establishments and businesses which are located in office parks are most vulnerable to burglary. Establishments which have been in business less than one year are more likely to be burgled; the longer a store is in business, the less likely it is to become a victim of burglary. Burglar alarms are the most effective deterrent available to commercial establishments, followed by the installation of exterior and interior lights. In general, the probability of burglary of non‐alarmed properties is 4.57 times higher than of similar alarmed property. The study is based upon a detailed survey of commercial establishments in three suburban communities of Philadelphia. These communities vary in their locational, physical and socio‐economic characteristics and represent many suburban localities throughout the United States.