Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and factors of heat vulnerability in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2001 to 2022

Abstract

To explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of heat vulnerability in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration during heatwave disasters, this research employs the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to calculate the heat vulnerability assessment results for nine cities in the region spanning from 2001 to 2022. Through the application of kernel density estimation, Moran's I, and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, which is proven to be superior to traditional model such as OLS, this study analyzes the dynamic distribution patterns of heat vulnerability in the study area and dissect the trends of influencing factors. The results reveal that from 2001 to 2022, the overall heat vulnerability index in the study area demonstrates a fluctuating downward trend. Key contributors to heat vulnerability include high-frequency and long-duration heatwaves, population sensitivity, and changes in residents' consumption levels. Throughout this period of development, the disparity in heat vulnerability among cities has gradually widened, indicating an overall pattern of uneven development in the region. Future attention should be focused on formulating heat adaptation strategies in areas with high vulnerability to enhance the overall sustainability of the study area.