Spatial and temporal diversity dynamic of forestland ecological footprint index in jiangxi province

Abstract

There are three spots in relation to forestland type in the theory and method of ecological footprint. The theory of ecological footprint was reinforced and improved to assess the sustainable development through putting forward the concept and grade of forestland ecological footprint index. Then this new model was applied to analysis the spatial-temporal diversity dynamic of forestland sustainable utilization in Jiangxi Province. The results of analysis showed: during the period of 2004 to 2008, in 11 cities of Jiangxi province, forestland ecological footprint index grade of Nanchang, Pingxiang, Yingtan and Xinyu were 6, that of Jiujiang, Jingdezhen and Yichun being 5, Ji'an and Shangrao's being 4, and that of Ganzhou and Fuzhou being 3. The spatial-temporal regression forecast model of Jiangxi forestland sustainable utilization was established by using a stagger and rolled method. The results of predicting showed: in the next 5 years (2009–2013), the forestland ecological footprint index of all 11 cities will ascend with fluctuation, of which Jiujiang, Yichun and Shangrao will ascend a rank, and other eight cities will have the same ranks. The forecast effect with fluctuation is difficult to realize by the method of temporal sequence linearity regression.