Spatial and temporal disaggregation of natural emissions in urban areas in Greece for the period 2010–2013 and future projections

Abstract

Emission inventories for particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-10 ) from natural sources were created for the Athens and Thessaloniki metropolitan areas and the greater area of Volos for the period 2010–2013. The inventories include primary windblown dust emissions from agricultural and vacant lands, primary sea salt particles emissions from the breaking of waves at the Sea Shore-surf zone and the bursting of bubbles from oceanic whitecaps - Open Ocean, and emissions of BVOCs (Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds), precursor to PM. The objective of this work was to study the seasonal variation of natural PM emissions in the areas of interest and their spatial allocation. Weighting factors, specific to each pollutant, source and area, were calculated for the disaggregation of annual emissions to monthly and daily values and their allocation on high resolution grids. There was no significant seasonal variation observed in the natural PM emissions while BVOCs emissions were increased during the warm period due to the enhanced solar radiation and temperature. The results of the calculations were compared to values of the period 2000–2010 and it was found that natural BVOCs emissions during the period 2010–2013 were enhanced compared to 2000–2010 whereas natural PM emissions have lowered. Moreover, the analysis focused on the effects from possible future changes in land cover and environmental conditions to the temporal and spatial variation of natural emissions over the areas using specific scenarios. • Monthly emissions of primary PM from natural sources in three urban areas in Greece were calculated. • The BVOCs emissions during the period 2010–2013 were enhanced compared to 2000–2010 whereas natural PM emissions have lowered. • The projected changes in temperature and precipitation did not affect considerably the temporal and spatial distribution of natural emissions. • Considerable emission changes were observed for significant land use modifications together with the prevalence of dry conditions.