Abstract
Abstract. In this article we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fatal Austrian avalanche accidents caused by backcountry and off-piste skiers and snowboarders within the winter periods 1967/1968–2015/2016. The data were based on reports of the Austrian Board for Alpine Safety and reports of the information services of the federal states. Using the date and the location of the recorded avalanche accidents, we were able to carry out spatial and temporal analyses applying generalized additive models and Markov random-field models. As a result of the trend analysis we noticed an increasing trend of backcountry and off-piste avalanche fatalities within the winter periods 1967/1968–2015/2016 (although slightly decreasing in recent years), which is in contradiction to the widespread opinion in Austria that the number of fatalities is constant over time. Additionally, we compared Austrian results with results of Switzerland, France, Italy and the US based on data from the International Commission of Alpine Rescue (ICAR). As a result of the spatial analysis, we noticed two hot spots of avalanche fatalities (Arlberg–Silvretta and Sölden). Because of the increasing trend and the rather narrow regional distribution of the fatalities, initiatives aimed at preventing avalanche accidents were highly recommended.
Highlights
In the Alps, backcountry skiing has become very popular in the last 50 years
Of fatal accident events in Austria within the winter periods 1980/1981–2015/2016, which are available from the annual reports of the Austrian Board for Alpine Safety (Kuratorium für alpine Sicherheit, 1973–2016) and the annual reports of the information services of the federal states (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 1994–2009)
We use the Aikake information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in order to compare the constant, linear and nonlinear model
Summary
There are a lot of fatal accidents due to snow avalanches caused by skiers and/or snowboarders. They are of special public interest (Januskovecz, 1989). In Austria, about 25–30 fatalities caused by snow avalanches are expected every year (Neuhold, 2012; Höller, 2009). It is reported that in Alpine countries (such as Austria) the number of fatalities is more or less constant over the time (Brugger et al, 2001; Valt and Pivot, 2013; Roth, 2013) and that there is some sort of seasonality in the data in terms of higher frequencies of accidents within a distance of 5 or 6 years (Höller, 2009; Tschirky et al, 2000). In a recent paper Techel et al (2016) investigated avalanche fatalities in the European Alps (in addition to Switzerland–Austria– Slovenia) over time stratified for controlled and uncontrolled terrain, concluding that in the case of uncontrolled terrain the trend seems to be constant over time from the 1980s up to now
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