Spatial and Econometric Modeling of the Demographic Situation in the Kemerovo Region

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the demographic situation in 34 municipal formations in the Kemerovo Region of the Russian Federation (16 urban districts and 18 municipal districts). The methods of spatial-econometrics modelling are used to study the factors affecting depopulation in the region and problems of the spatial arrangement and heterogeneity of the 24 single-industry cities. Calculating the local and global Moran’s index revealed positive autocorrelation between the population of the regions and districts, which makes it necessary to consider spatial interconnections while creating prediction models. In order to downweight the attribute space, four integrated indexes, that characterize integrated assessments of the levels of education, ecology, healthcare and housing conditions were created. The SAR-model was built, reflecting the effect complex assessment of the social-ecological infrastructure development has on the relative population growth in municipal formations of the Kemerovo region. The assessment of factors, affecting population in the territorial units, have shown that the most influential are healthcare and housing. Based on the data obtained, it was concluded that differentiation, taking place in the development of regions and district of the Kuznetsk Basin, is mostly due to internal factors. The results testify to the need for a regionally differentiated approach when managing the demographic situation in the Kemerovo region.