Spatial Analysis of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in China Using a Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model.

Liang Wu,Sheng Hu,Shu Shen,Zhong Xie,Fei Deng,Junming Shi,Dan Liu

doi:10.3390/ijerph13111125

Abstract

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity), the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010–2012). We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1) meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2) a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3) our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies.

Highlights

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with a fatality rate of 12%
This study found that meteorological factors were associated with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) cover and that the influence of meteorological factors on SFTSV cover varies in different areas
The study showed that a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model is appropriate to assess the SFTSV cover in mainland China

Summary

Introduction

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with a fatality rate of 12%. It was first reported in 2009 in the rural regions of the provinces of Hubei and Henan in central China. SFTS has been reported in at least. 13 provinces in the central, eastern and northern regions of China [4], and in North Korea [5], South Korea [6] and Japan [7]. A novel phlebovirus of the family Bunyaviridae was identified as the causative agent of SFTS in 2010, and it was named severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) or Huaiyangshan virus [1,9]

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