Spatial analysis of energy indicators and proposition of alternative generation sources for the Brazilian territory

Abstract

Brazil has an electrical matrix predominantly of renewable origin. Thus, unlike the rest of the world, the big challenge is maintaining a high proportion of renewable energy, diversifying through other sources. Due to its favorable geographic and productive characteristics, the country has a vast potential for generating energy from solar, biomass, and wind sources. In addition, distributed generation systems can increase energy security. The evaluation and survey of suitable locations for installing distributed generation systems from these alternative sources must consider several attributes. Thus, the objective of this study was to propose the allocation of potential areas for the installation of generation projects from renewable sources in Brazil through GIS and decision-making tools based on financial, environmental, and social indicators. Mathematical modeling, probabilistic treatments, and optimization by integer linear programming were used for system sizing and budgeting. The total generation potential in Brazil was estimated at: 247.978 MWh km−2 y−1 (solar); 9.492 MWh km−2 y−1 (biomass); and 3.629 GWh km−2 y−1 (wind). The wind generation projects had a significantly high implementation cost (on average, USD 124,655.75), and, despite the high potential, they were not viable based on the established criteria. About 66% of the national territory tended to implement and connect systems to the network. From the area availability and the investment and connectivity restrictions, a targeting of 49.95% for biomass systems and 50.05% for solar energy systems was obtained. It is a generic, robust and efficient methodology that can be implemented in other world regions regarding systems modeling and decision making.