Spatial Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Economies Through Japan’s Rice Production Changes and Innovative Food Industry Cluster: Using the Nine Interregional CGE Model

Abstract

Based on the assumption that only rice is affected by global warming-induced climate change, the present study measures the impact of climate change on regional economies through changes in Japan’s rice production and economic effects of innovative food industry clusters to recover from climate change. Our findings show that global warming has different impacts on each region and expands regional economic disparities. For example, global warming has a positive impact on regional economies in Hokkaido and Tohoku. Meanwhile, global warming has negative impacts on Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu. Moreover, in most regions, the food and beverage industries will have a negative impact by global warming except the case that the production of agricultural food products will be positively affected in Hokkaido. Also, assuming that adaptive technologies such as high-temperature-tolerant rice varieties are developed in each region, the impact on climate change on rice production will be reduced. However, regional economies other than Hokkaido and Tohoku will continue to be negatively affected, and regional disparities are not completely resolved. Considering this result, we carried out the simulation to form the food industry cluster that links cooperation agriculture and food processing industry. As a result, we found that innovative food industry cluster is worth considering as measures against global warming to each regional economy.