Spatial Analysis of Changes in the Demographic Characteristics of the Cres-Lošinj Area Using the GIS Model

Abstract

The paper aims to carry out a spatial analysis of the changes in selected demographic characteristics of the Cres-Lošinj area using the GIS model. For this purpose, data from all censuses carried out so far (1857−2021) were used, which were primarily analyzed cartographically by using Mean Center and the Standard Deviational Ellipse (Directional Distribution) spatial analysis methods, which are an integral part of the basic software package ArcGIS Desktop version 10.0 produced by ESRI. Tabular and graphical appendices were used to additionally complement the analyses. The analyses were carried out on three levels: the level of the Cres-Lošinj area as a whole, the individual level of the Town of Cres and the Town of Mali Lošinj, and the level of settlements. For the area of Cres-Lošinj as a whole, the results showed a tendency of the mean center of the population moving towards the north in the 1857−1948 period, then towards the southwest in the 1948−1991 period, while in subsequent censuses the tendency was again towards the north. Among the local self-government units, a common feature of the movement of the mean center of the population is that in the observed period (1857−2021), and particularly the last observed year (2021), the mean centers of the population are very close to the center of the town/municipality. Using the standard deviational ellipse (directional distribution) method, it was determined that larger settlements (Mali Lošinj, Cres and Veli Lošinj) have an increasing influence on the population direction, and it was determined that the population is concentrated closer to the larger settlements, i.e. to the centers of local self-government, while at the same time the influence on the directional distribution of the population of a large number of small settlements in the northern part of the research area decreased due to an increasing reduction in the number of inhabitants. The GIS model used in this study is suitable for researching the complexity of the demographic dynamics of the so-called of small populations because it enables an analysis at multiple spatial levels and contains methods of spatial analysis that use absolute numbers.