Spatial analysis and prediction of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Zhejiang province, 2011-2015

Abstract

Objective: To understand the distribution of the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in Zhejiang province, and predict the incidence and the probability of SFTS outbreak. Methods: Based on the cases of SFTS from 2011-2015, software ArcGIS 10.0 was used to analyze the spatial distribution, Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation. The incidence trend was explored by trend surface analysis, and the prediction was made by Kriging interpolation. Results: The incidence of SFTS increased and the distribution expanded in Zhejiang from 2011 to 2015, the seasonal and the demographic characteristics of SFTS were similar to the previous research; there were regional clustering of the cases (P<0.001); a downward trend was observed from northeast to southwest in terms of incidence of SFTS; the second-order disjunctive Kriging interpolation based on circular model and the indicator Kriging interpolation based on exponential model had higher prediction accuracy, the probabilities of outbreak in Anji, Daishan and Tiantai were high, the prediction deviation of inland was less than that of edge area. Conclusion: The prediction of SFTS by Kriging interpolation had high accuracy, the incidence of SFTS was higher and the distribution of SFTS was larger than the results of surveillance, the risk areas for epidemic were Anji, Daishan, Ninghai,Tiantai, Sanmen and Linhai.