Abstract
Plague, caused by Yersinia pestitis, is an infectious bacterial disease that has a high fatality rate if untreated. Rodents are plague reservoirs and play an important role in disease spread. Plague cases have been reported extensively since the second pandemic from the 14th century in countries sharing borders with Pakistan, such as China and India, as well as nearby countries including Russia and central Asia. Despite being centrally located in a plague-infested geographical zone, there has been no plague incidence reported from Pakistan. This study aims to pinpoint some of the potentially important aspects of the disease, which have to be considered when assessing potential risk associated with a plague outbreak in Pakistan. In this context, the occurrence and distribution of plague-associated rodent reservoirs in different regions of Pakistan in relation to those found in the neighboring countries were mapped. In addition, the climatic factors that may also influence disease spread by affecting the growth of the bacteria are also discussed. The combined epidemiological and ecological surveillance studies suggest a prevalence of several potential rodent carriers in certain districts with the possibility of a plague outbreak in Pakistan.
Highlights
Plague is a severe infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis
Plague hosts and climatic conditions were taken under consideration, especially those that are common between the affected neighboring countries and Pakistan
Since several potential plague rodent species prevail in the country, we examined whether the climatic conditions prevalent in Pakistan favored disease dispersal
Summary
Plague is a severe infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. This disease has been associated with human pandemics since the 6th century and has caused tens of millions of deaths worldwide [1]. Our results highlight the fact that most of the studied districts show favorable climatic conditions for spread of plague, such as high temperatures, among others (Figure 2) Natural disasters such as floods have affected these areas over the decades repeatedly, which may lead to a possibility of increased migration of rodents carrying the disease across borders of floodaffected regions [47]. M. caudata was found to be the main host in plague foci of Xinjiang, China [54], in central Asia, and in the former Soviet Union [55]; it is prevalent in Pakistan, in the Astore and Gilgit districts that border China This further strengthens our observation that Pakistan has various rodent species in common with countries with reported outbreaks of plague. In this review, we evaluated the possibilities in terms of the occurrence and spread of the disease, keeping in mind the geographic location of Pakistan with reference to its neighboring countries reporting active plague foci
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