Abstract
Despite visceral leishmaniasis (VL) being epidemic in most Brazilian regions, the Northeast region is responsible for the highest morbidity and mortality outcomes within the country. To analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of VL cases to identify the temporal trends and high-risk areas for VL transmission, as well as the association of the disease with social vulnerability in Brazilian Northeast. We carried out an ecological time series study employing spatial analysis techniques using all VL confirmed cases of 1,794 municipalities of Brazilian Northeast between the years 2000 to 2017. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was used to represent the social vulnerability. Incidence rates were standardized and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Time trends were examined through segmented linear regression. Spatiotemporal analysis consisted of uni- and bivariate Global and Local Moran indexes and space-time scan statistics. Incidence rate remained stable and ranged from 4.84 to 3.52 cases/100,000 inhabitants. There was higher case prevalence between males (62.71%), children and adolescents (63.27%), non-white (69.75%) and urban residents (62.58%). Increasing trends of new cases were observed among adult male subjects (≥ 40 years old) and urban residents. Importantly, VL incidence showed a direct spatial dependence. Spatial and space-time clusters were identified in sertão and meio-norte sub-regions, overlapping with high social vulnerability areas. VL is a persistent health issue in Brazilian Northeast and associated with social vulnerability. Space-time clustering of VL cases in socially vulnerable municipalities demands intersectoral public policies of surveillance and control, with focus on reducing inequalities and improving living conditions for regional inhabitants.
Highlights
Despite the epidemiologic transition in Brazil, infectious diseases, especially neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), are still a major public health problem [1], such as visceral leishmaniasis (VL) that can be life-threatening if not properly treated [2].It is estimated that one billion people live in VL-endemic regions worldwide, with 300,000 new cases and 20,000 deaths per year due to the disease
We carried out an ecological time series study employing spatial analysis techniques using all VL confirmed cases of 1,794 municipalities of Brazilian Northeast between the years 2000 to 2017
The Northeast has important socioeconomic disparities, which are represented by the highest social vulnerability index (SVI) and the lowest human development index (HDI) in the country [14]
Summary
We carried out an ecological time series study employing spatial analysis techniques using all VL confirmed cases of 1,794 municipalities of Brazilian Northeast between the years 2000 to 2017. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was used to represent the social vulnerability. Incidence rates were standardized and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Time trends were examined through segmented linear regression. Spatiotemporal analysis consisted of uni- and bivariate Global and Local Moran indexes and space-time scan statistics
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