Space–time patterns during the establishment of a nonindigenous species

Abstract

AbstractIncreasing rates of global trade and travel have the invariable consequence of an increase in the likelihood of nonindigenous species arrival, and some new arrivals are successful in establishing themselves. Quantifying the pattern of establishment of nonindigenous species across both spatial and temporal scales is paramount in early detection efforts, yet very difficult to accomplish. Previous work in epidemiology has proposed methods for assessing the space–time properties of emerging infectious diseases by quantifying the degree of space–time clustering between individual cases. I tested the applicability of one such method commonly used in epidemiology, the Knox test for space–time interaction, to analyze rare abundance data from an isolated, newly‐establishing gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, population in Minnesota, USA, and incorporated a bootstrap approach to quantify the space–time pattern in a random process that can be used to compare with results from empirical data. The use of the Knox test in assessing the establishment phase of biological invasions could potentially serve as an early warning system against new invaders, particularly for those with a known history of a repeated number of arrivals.