Space/Time Features of the Secular Variation in 1951-1998 Northern 500-hPa Height

Abstract

This paper presents a trend coefficient as a characteristic index with which to investigate the 1951–1998 secular trend variation (STV) of northern 500-hPa height on a seasonal basis. Evidence suggests that low (high) latitude 500 hPa geopotential height displays a remarkably positive (negative) trend; the positive anomaly of the height is maintained over NW Africa, the western Mediterranean Sea and North Africa, mid-Pacific at lower latitudes, Lake Baikal and area to the east and NW North America; the height drops significantly over the Aleutians and North Pacific, the area to the south of the Greenland and NE North America and the sector to the north of the Arabian Sea. Further, analysis of abrupt change shows that the 500-hPa circulations experience noticeable sudden change twice, once around the early 1960s and again in 1976, during which period the height exhibits great differences between the Pacific and Atlantic. In the first period it drops (rises) over the mid-Atlantic at lower latitudes (NW Africa); in the second period the height rises (drops) over the mid-Pacific at lower latitudes and Lake Baikal (the North Pacific). Statistical tests indicate that in the 1976 case the low-latitude positive abrupt change is even more noticeable compared to the negative of the North Pacific, thus representing a large-scale jumping event of the northern 500-hPa height.