Abstract
Generic analogies exist between forecast meteorology and space weather forecasting. Besides sharing a common dynamical paradigm in the form of continuum mechanics, it also happens that both disciplines are concerned with three types of storm systems that have parallel aspects in relative sizes, energies, and diculty of predictability. Arranged hierarchically by size, these are extratropical cyclones and M-region storms, hurricanes and CMEs, tornadoes and super GIC-inducing auroral electrojets. Forecast meteorology, being older than space weather forecasting, has progressed further along the path of improving forecast services. We have identified ten general stages through which forecast meteorology has progressed: 1, societal need; 2, visual observations; 3, instrument observations; 4, synoptic imagery; 5, ocial forecast centres; 6, storm-structure definition; 7, subjective analysis; 8, objective analysis; 9, numerical predictions; and 10, storm tracking. Space weather forecasting has progressed through, or is progressing into, nine of these stages, missing only stage 9, numerical weather prediction.
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