Space-time relationships between COVID-19 vaccinations and human mobility patterns in the United States

Abstract

As COVID-19 vaccines were administered in early 2021, they helped to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus and signaled an important shift in the pandemic. To better understand how ongoing COVID-19 vaccinations were related to human mobility across the U.S., we identified different mobility-vaccination profiles between January and May 2021 by county in the U.S., using K-means multivariate time-series clustering. The impacts of demographic, socioeconomic, and COVID-19-related variables on different profiles were examined. Results showed 5 different clusters of mobility-vaccination profiles were found for the U.S. One cluster represented counties in larger population centers and metropolitan areas (e.g., Los Angeles and New York) that had estimated 25% higher mobility and 75% higher vaccination rates than rural counties in the Mountain and South U.S. Census regions (e.g., counties in Arkansas and Mississippi), where people were mobile despite not getting vaccinated. Higher education and household income were found to impact counties’ mobility-vaccination profiles. Examination of trip purposes for selected counties returned higher trips to retail/recreation and workplaces for rural counties with relatively lower mobility-vaccination profiles. The results can serve as input for regional and local health officials regarding population responses to a pandemic relevant to economic recovery and future disease prevention.