Space–Time Clustering and Climatic Risk Factors for Lumpy Skin Disease of Cattle in Uttar Pradesh, India, 2022

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), a transboundary infectious disease, negatively impacts cattle health and production. The first LSD outbreaks were reported in India in 2019, and since then, LSD spread to over 15 states, including Uttar Pradesh. This study evaluated LSD cases reported by veterinarians in Uttar Pradesh, India, during 2022. Using scan statistics, Poisson models that accounted for the background cattle population were constructed to identify spatial, temporal, and space–time clusters. A negative binomial regression model was built to assess the impact of temperature and humidity on the incidence rate (IR) of LSD. A total of 112,226 cases across 33 districts were reported in 2022. A purely temporal cluster with higher-than-expected LSD rates was identified between August and October 2022. Several purely spatial clusters were identified in the western part of the state. A primary space–time cluster was detected in west Utter Pradesh between August and October 2022 that overlapped with the spatial clusters. The secondary cluster occurred between September and October 2022 in the eastern part of the state. A rise in humidity (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.30–1.49) and temperature (IRR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06–1.27) increased the IR of LSD, suggesting a seasonality of the outbreaks. The results of this study can aid animal health authorities in developing effective LSD prevention, surveillance, and control strategies among cattle in India.