Space, time and nesting Integrated Assessment Models

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Modelling in the field of air pollution has advanced greatly since the 1985 Helsinki Protocol on the reduction of Sulphur emissions and their transboundary fluxes. With subsequent protocols and increased understanding of the inter-relationships between local air quality, transboundary air pollution and climate change, a variety of spatio-temporal issues must be addressed in order to model the multi-scalar processes involved and nest Integrated Assessment Models. We describe the state-of-the-art in Integrated Assessment Modelling using a conceptual framework which locates the research activities driving integrated assessment in relation both to each other and to flows of information between activities, and identify inter-relationships with scientific and policy domains beyond the scope of the UN/ECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, recognising the utility of social science in understanding the effects of policy on socio-cultural behaviours. We discuss how the issues identified are being captured by integrated assessment models, with particular focus on the treatment of non-technical pollution abatement measures, noting current developments at the micro-scale addressing the dynamics of behavioural responses to abatement policies. Finally, we identify three key challenges for issue-driven Integrated Assessment Modelling: (i) capturing the dynamics of behavioural responses to value-driven policy mechanisms designed to promote non-technical abatement measures; (ii) the development of new tools to handle the delay times, inter-dependencies and multi-pollutant effects of abatement measures; and (iii) the identification of boundaries between knowledge domains and the effective transfer of multi-disciplinary scientific and socio-cultural knowledge to an increasingly trans-disciplinary policy domain.