Space shuttle's impact on the stratosphere: An update

Abstract

To assess their impact on the stratosphere, a launch scenario of nine shuttles and three Titans per year is simulated in a two‐dimensional photochemistry and transport model that includes heterogeneous reactions on a stratospheric sulfate aerosol (SSA) layer and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). These rocket launches are predicted to cause small constituent changes in the stratosphere. Maximum total inorganic chlorine enhancements are computed to be about 12 parts per trillion by volume (∼0.4% on a 3 parts per billion by volume background) in the middle to upper stratosphere at northern middle to high latitudes. Maximum ozone decreases associated with these chlorine increases are calculated to be about 0.14% in the middle to upper stratosphere at northern middle to high latitudes. Column ozone decreases are predicted to be a maximum of about 0.05% at northern polar latitudes in the early spring. Model results using (1) gas phase only reactions, (2) gas phase reactions and heterogeneous reactions on the SSA layer, and (3) gas phase reactions and heterogeneous reactions on the SSA layer and PSCs have also been compared with one another. The simulations from these three versions of our model gave annually averaged global total ozone decreases of (1) 0.0056%, (2) 0.010%, and (3) 0.014%. Stratospheric effects from heterogeneous reactions promoted by the alumina emitted from these rockets could be larger than those predicted from the chlorine emissions and need to be investigated further.