Space Science & Technology in the Arctic: Promises of Cooperation and Development amid New Security Challenges

Abstract

Abstract Space science and technology (S & T) holds great potential for international scientific cooperation in the Arctic, especially concerning climate change. Space-based earth observation, navigation/positioning and communication is of great value to Arctic local and indigenous communities. Space-based S & T is also a prerequisite for development of Arctic shipping and natural resources. At the same time, space S & T in the Arctic holds dynamics, which may undermine Arctic and international stability and security. The Arctic houses key infrastructure for nuclear strategic stability, weapon systems, early warning, and ballistic missile defense. Arctic high latitudes provide significant advantages to space S & T with the potential for dual use. Space, which now underpins all societies, may become militarized. Strategic stability safeguards humanity. During the Cold War, there was an effective decision-making process mediated by game theory and modelling. However, new technologies, a far more complex multi-player, multi-nation environment and new space S & T reduce the effectiveness of traditional approaches. This research proposes to address the current intellectual vacuum by creating a clearer understanding of the parameters, players, technologies, and their interactions and develop a new and robust theoretical basis that will contribute in the longer term towards appropriate and balanced Arctic governance for achieving strategic stability and space security. This research will test the hypothesis that Arctic space S & T destabilizes strategic stability and space security. New theory, empirical overview, and modelling will provide a new intellectual basis for governance of Arctic space S & T for strategic stability and space security in the new era.