Abstract
Massive land-use/cover changes (LUCC) have been observed in many regions worldwide over several decades. Modelling frameworks based on spatially explicit land-use/cover maps are particular suitable for analysing the impacts of LUCC on ecosystems and on related functions and services. Spatial allocation procedures have to meet specific characteristics of the study area and mountain regions require particular attention due to their complex topography. The aims of the study were to (1) develop SPatial Allocation procedures of LUCC (SPA-LUCC) adapted to the specific situation of mountain regions — in particular of the Alps, (2) generate land-use/cover scenario maps considering different patterns of socioeconomic development, and (3) evaluate LUCC spatially. Examining historical maps of the Stubai Valley (Austria), we identified biophysical factors as well as socioeconomic drivers. For validation, the 2003 land-use pattern was modelled based on the land-use pattern for 1973, providing an overall accuracy of 73%. Furthermore, we tested SPA-LUCC in other regions of the Alps in France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland successfully (accuracy ranged between 63% and 84%). Hence, SPA-LUCC was proven to be valid for 75% of the Alps. Likely future land-use patterns were modelled for three different socioeconomic scenarios for the Stubai Valley: (a) continuation of previous land-use changes, (b) reduction of use and (c) diversification of use. Results showed that agricultural land in particular is affected by significant changes, whereas the forest belt and near-natural grassland undergo only minor changes. Thus, SPA-LUCC lays the foundation for evaluating future landscape dynamics in the Alps. To provide practitioners with a user-friendly instrument, SPA-LUCC was elaborated as an ArcGIS®-toolbox.
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