SP1.2 Accuracy of NELA score in predicting the risk of mortality following emergency laparotomy in patients aged above and below 80: A cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Aims To compare accuracy of National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) score in predicting the risk of mortality following emergency laparotomy in patients aged above and below 80. Methods In compliance with STROCSS statement standards, a retrospective cohort study was conducted. The study period was between January 2017 and January 2022. All adult patients with non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology who underwent emergency laparotomy in two centres were included. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and Hosmer & Lemeshow test were conducted to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of NELA score in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality in patients aged above and below 80 years. Results A total of 1458 eligible patients were included; 289 patients were aged above 80 with median age of 84 (IQR 81-87) and 1168 patients were aged below 80 with median age of 60 (IQR 46-71). The risk of 30-day mortality was 13.5 % in the above 80 group and 8% in the below 80 group. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of NELA score was 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83) in the above 80 group and 0.89 (95% CI 0.87-0.91) in the below 80 group. The score was not well-calibrated for either group. Conclusions The NELA score is less accurate in predicting the risk of mortality following emergency laparotomy in patients aged above 80 compared to younger patients. This may be explained by the fact that it does not take into account the measures of age-related decline in physical status of the patients.