Abstract
Technically, the 1980s begin in sixteen months. But history does not divide itself neatly into discrete decades. Nothing of major significance is destined to occur in January 1980; indeed, the first landmark for the 1980s, in Soviet terms, could be the Party Congress, scheduled to take place in 1981. The odds are that there will be a top-leadership change before then, and this could be the first post-Brezhnev Congress. Projections probing well into the next decade are hazardous, if not foolish: only historians are able to identify the characteristics of various decades. Even the Soviet Planning Commission (Gosplan) and the Pentagon make only five-year plans.
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