Abstract
Coral reef social-ecological systems worldwide face major impacts from climate change, and spatial variation in vulnerability is driven by differential exposure to climatic threats, ecological and socio-economic sensitivity to those threats, ecological recovery potential, and socio-economic adaptive capacity. We assess variation in social-ecological vulnerability to climate change-induced coral bleaching, specifically for reef-based fisheries and tourism, of islands throughout the insular Caribbean, thus providing the first region-wide quantitative analysis of island-scale social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching. We show that different components of vulnerability have distinct spatial patterns and that variability in overall vulnerability is driven more by socio-economic than ecological components. Importantly, we find that sovereign islands are less vulnerable on average than overseas territories and that the presence of fisheries management regulations is a significant predictor of adaptive capacity and socio-economic sensitivity, with important implications for island-level governance and policies to reduce climate vulnerability.
Highlights
Many marine ecosystems are experiencing the effects of climate change [1,2], and coral reef systems, including those in the Caribbean, may be at risk of climate change impacts [3,4,5,6]
We focus on impacts to reef fisheries and marine tourism, comparing levels of ecological, socio-economic, and composite socialecological vulnerability across the region at the island scale
Our results provide the first regional quantitative analysis of social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching across many national jurisdictions, incorporating data from 30 island nations and territories
Summary
Many marine ecosystems are experiencing the effects of climate change [1,2], and coral reef systems, including those in the Caribbean, may be at risk of climate change impacts [3,4,5,6]. Our assessment follows a modified IPCC framework, developing five quantitative indicators of vulnerability: (i) ecological exposure (to conditions that cause coral bleaching), (ii) ecological sensitivity (of the dominant coral taxa to bleaching conditions and of fished species to coral loss), (iii) ecological recovery potential of reef ecosystems, (iv) socioeconomic sensitivity (based on economic dependence on reef fisheries and tourism), and (v) socio-economic adaptive capacity (defined as an island community’s ability to adapt to environmental change or transform itself [18,35], assessed using proxies for livelihood diversification and learning, social organization, and the ability to detect and adapt to environmental change) We assess these indicators using existing data and scientific literature from 30 nations and territories (territories include overseas regions, departments, and collectivities associated with other sovereign nations) in the insular Caribbean (figure 1). This research addresses important gaps in the literature including: assessing social-ecological vulnerability at larger spatial scales than most previous studies (e.g. the insular Caribbean); identifying policy-relevant governance and management factors that may influence island-scale vulnerability; and developing and compiling an unprecedented array of ecological and social indicator data for the Caribbean
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