Southward shift of precipitation extremes over south Asia: Evidences from CORDEX data

Abstract

Analysis of observed Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation reveals more increase in extreme precipitation (in terms of its magnitude) over south India compared to north and central India during 1971–2017 (base period: 1930–1970). In the future, analysis of precipitation from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment indicates a southward shift of precipitation extremes over South Asia. For instance, the Arabian Sea, south India, Myanmar, Thailand, and Malaysia are expected to have the maximum increase (~18.5 mm/day for RCP8.5 scenario) in mean extreme precipitation (average precipitation for the days with more than 99th percentile of daily precipitation). However, north and central India and Tibetan Plateau show relatively less increase (~2.7 mm/day for RCP8.5 scenario). Analysis of air temperature at 850 mb and precipitable water (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicates an intensification of Indian Ocean Dipole in future, which will enhance the monsoon throughout India. Moisture flux and convergence analysis (at 850 mb) show a future change of the direction of south-west monsoon winds towards the east over the Indian Ocean. These changes will intensify the observed contrast in extreme precipitation between south and north India, and cause more extreme precipitation events in the countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.