Southern oscillation and the northern australian prawn catch

Abstract

Associations are established between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and penaeid prawn catches within the northern Australian prawn fishery. Analysis involved calculation of correlations between Gulf of Carpentaria banana prawn andtiger prawn catches and Troup’s SOI. Significant positive correlations are observed between catch size and SOI for specific months from pre-wet to post-wet seasons. For banana prawns, the results indirectly confirm some earlier observations of increased catches in conjunction with high rainfall during the onset of monsoon periods, but also indicate an association with late rains. However, the relationship with tiger prawns appears to be in the opposite direction, showing negative correlations with SOI for particular months. Some hypotheses are suggested to explain these results in terms of environmental effects on spawning populations, and comment is made on the potential for forecasting catch sizes.