South Korean Diplomacy on the Korean Peace Process: A Comparative Study of Moon Jae-in and Roh Moo-hyun’s Approaches

Abstract

There has long been a debate about how South Korea should best manage the Korean peace and denuclearization process in order to resolve the Korean conflict. Previous research into South Korea’s strategy has focused mostly on comparing the progressive and conservative approaches, or on analyzing individual administrations. However, the first only helps to identify which of these broad approaches works better, not how either would best be applied, and the second does not allow for contrast in order to facilitate comparison. This dissertation compares the approaches to the peace and denuclearization process of two progressive administrations, Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in, thus providing a more nuanced insight into policies of engagement. Through qualitative analysis of a variety of sources it identifies three core differences in their approaches. Firstly, the terms on which Moon engaged with the DPRK were more conditional than those of Roh. Moon’s approach did provide the DPRK with better incentives to cooperate, but it also caused some frustration and loss of confidence for the DPRK later on. The second difference is that Moon has had a better working relationship with the US than Roh did. This is in part the result of Moon’s efforts to save US face and avoid actions that could lead the US to experience abandonment fear in the context of their alliance, both of which Roh was by comparison far less considerate of. These efforts gave Moon more influence over the US and better leverage over the DPRK through closer cooperation with the US. However, his decision to stand with the US on the issue of sanctions also led to a loss of momentum for inter-Korean relations in 2019. Lastly, more of the interactions between the ROK, US, and DPRK under Moon took place at the heads of state level compared to under Roh. This made developments under Moon more volatile, which was a disadvantage in some instances, particularly when a systematic, steady approach was needed. However, it also provided Moon with flexibility and direct influence over the development of the peace process, which in several instances enabled him to keep up momentum. This dissertation will discuss how these variations may have contributed to divergent results.