South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents the facts on existing and future prospects of regional trade integration in South Asia in the backdrop of multilateral trade agreements. The study applies trade intensity index of four largest South Asian countries (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) to estimates the short‐ and long‐run trade co‐integration in autoregressive multilateral framework. The results highlights that long‐run trade complementarities are found between the trade of Pakistan and Sri Lanka, while short‐run trade complementarities exist between India and Bangladesh, and between India and Sri Lanka. Pakistan and Bangladesh are found close trade competitors in South Asia in short run. The findings are important for policy implication which highlights how to bridge the untapped regional trade integration in South Asia. If trade barriers are overcome, the greater degree of trade openness can play vital role in achieving balanced regional economic development. India being the largest economy can play key role in striving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) process for pursuing its objectives.