South Africa's Energy Policy: Constrained by Nature and Path Dependency

Abstract

Pursuing a ‘natural-social scientific’ approach, I argue that constraints and opportunities provided by nature play a major role in South Africa's energy policy. Presently, the country's coal-dominated energy sector stands at a critical juncture. In order to overcome electricity shortages and provide a basis for economic growth, coal-fired power generation will have to expand. Regional cooperation on gas reserves and hydropower, a nuclear build-up programme at home and renewable energy constitute alternative strategies for South Africa to achieve energy security. I bring together natural conditions and social factors, reasoning that energy policy is largely determined by path-dependent developments. Path-dependent developments begin at critical junctures, where natural conditions and social factors jointly induce a course for the future that is extremely difficult to alter at a later point of time. Natural constraints and opportunities have received little attention in existing research but being aware of them helps us to better understand the present state of South Africa's energy sector and to assess the feasibility of envisaged strategies.