Sources of electoral support for minor parties: The case of the Australian Democrats

Abstract

Electoral support for a political party can come predominantly from four sources—social-structural, partisan, ideological or contemporary political factors—and the basis of a party's support is critical for its long-term survival. Using this model we find that the Australian Democrats, Australia's principal minor party since 1977, have only a weak social-structural base and this base has been declining. The most consistent sociological factor associated with the Democrat vote is tertiary education. Nor does the Democrat vote have a strong ideological base, although postmaterialism and environmentalism are associated with Democrat support to some extent. Much of the support for the Democrats comes from partisanship and contemporary political factors. The Democrats' partisan base declined between 1979 and 1987 but has since had a resurgence. Of the contemporary political factors, evaluations of the party leaders have a strong influence on the Democrat vote and so, to a lesser extent, do economic evaluations. These findings suggest that if the Democrats can maintain their partisan base and continue to draw support from the impact of contemporary political factors, they will be a feature of Australian politics for some time to come. However, their reliance on these factors makes them vulnerable to the winds of short-term political change. These findings are evaluated in the light of evidence about minor parties in other countries.