Source Process-Related Delays in Earthquake Early Warning for Example Cases in Greece

Abstract

ABSTRACTWe explore a hypothetical zero-latency earthquake early warning (EEW) system in Greece, aiming to provide alerts before warning thresholds of the intensity of ground motion are exceeded. Within the seismotectonic context of Greece, both shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes (along the Hellenic subduction zone) are plausible and, thus, examined. Using regionally applicable attenuation relations, we combine and adjust the methodologies of Minson et al. (2018) and Hoshiba (2020) to examine what are the minimum magnitudes required to invoke the warning thresholds at the user site. With simple modeling, we examine how fast an alert can be issued and what is the available warning time when taking into account delays due to finite-fault rupture propagation, alongside other delays. These computations are merged with delays introduced due to the present-day configuration of the Greek national monitoring network (varying spatial density of permanent monitoring stations). This approach serves as a tool to assess the feasibility of an EEW system at specific sites and to redesign the national permanent monitoring network to serve such a system more effectively (we provide results for four sites.). Warning times for on-land crustal earthquakes are found to be shorter, whereas for intermediate-depth earthquakes in Greece an EEW system is feasible (provides warning times of several tens of seconds at large cities, e.g., on Crete Island) even with the current configuration of the national monitoring network, which is quite sparse in the southern part of the country. The current network configuration also provides sufficient early warning (e.g., of the order of 10 s for a warning threshold of 0.05g) at the center of Athens from earthquakes of the eastern Gulf of Corinth—a zone posing elevated hazard in the broader area of the Greek capital. Several additional assumptions and factors affecting the operability of an EEW system in Greece (i.e., source process complexity and uncertainty in attenuation laws) are also discussed.