Source model of the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake tsunami based on historical documents and numerical simulations: modeling of an offshore fault along the Sagami Trough

Abstract

The 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake and the resulting tsunami caused catastrophic damage in the Kanto region of Japan. Previous modeling of the 1703 earthquake applied inversion analyses of the observed terrestrial crustal deformations along the coast of the southern Boso Peninsula and revealed that the tsunami was generated along the Sagami Trough. Although these models readily explained the observed crustal deformation, they were unable to model an offshore fault along the Sagami Trough because of difficulties related to the distance of the offshore fault from the shoreline. In addition, information regarding the terrestrial crustal deformation is insufficient to constrain such inverted models. To model an offshore fault and investigate the triggering of large tsunamis off the Pacific coast of the Boso Peninsula, we studied historical documents related to the 1703 tsunami from Choshi City. Based on these historical documents, we estimated tsunami heights of ≥5.9, 11.4–11.7, ≥7.7, 10.8 and ≥4.8 m for the Choshi City regions of Isejiga-ura, Kobatake-ike, Nagasaki, Tokawa and Na’arai, respectively. Although previous studies assumed that the tsunami heights ranged from 3.0 to 4.0 m in Choshi City, we revealed that the tsunami reached heights exceeded 11 m in the city. We further studied the fault model of the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake numerically using the newly obtained tsunami height data. Consequently, we determined that the source of the 1703 earthquake was a 120-km-long offshore fault along the Sagami Trough, which is in close proximity to the Japan Trench. Our results suggest that earthquake energies resulting in magnitudes greater than Mw 8.32 along the entire length of the Sagami Trough could have been released during the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake.Graphical abstract.