Source contributions to two super dust storms over Northern China in March 2021 and the impact of soil moisture

Abstract

Two extremely devastating super dust storms (SDS) hit Mongolia and Northern China in March 2021, causing many deaths and substantial economic damage. Accurate forecasting of dust storms is of great importance for avoiding or mitigating their effects. One of the most critical factors affecting dust emissions is soil moisture, but its value in desert exhibits significant uncertainty. In this study, model experiments were conducted to simulate dust emissions using four soil moisture datasets. The results were compared with observations to assess the effects of soil moisture on the dust emission strength. The Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) was used to track the dust sources and quantify the contribution from each source region to the dust load over the North China Plain (NCP), Korea peninsula, and western Japan. The results show large differences in the dust load depending on the soil moisture datasets used. The high soil moisture in the NCEP dataset results in substantial underestimation of the dust emission flux and PM10 concentration. Despite a minor overestimation of PM10 concentrations in many Northern China cities, the ERA5 dataset yields the best simulation performance. During the two SDS events, about 7.5 Mt dust was released from the deserts in Mongolia and 2.8 Mt from the deserts in China. Source apportionment indicates that the Mongolian Gobi Desert is the dominant source of PM10 in the NCP, Korea peninsula, and western Japan, accounting for 60 %–80 %, while Inner Mongolia contributed 10 %–20 %.