¿Son útiles los modelos de distribución realizados a gran escala para determinar la variación en la abundancia local de especies emblemáticas? El caso del Parque Nacional Iguazú

Abstract

Objective: This study explores the relationship between local abundances and environmental suitability values estimated using distribution models carried out with occurrence data coming from the complete distributional range of species. Methodology: The standardized abundance values of 9 mammals in the National Park Iguazu are calculated by eld work and their suitability values for the same localities estimated using climatic variables as predictors, and occurrences obtained across the complete distributional range of each species. The relationship between suitability and abundance values is represented graphically and statistically tested against a null model. Results: When the data for all species are pooled together, a positive correlation between suitability and abundance values is detected, although this relationship is trian- gular. In other words, low suitability values are associated with low abundances, but high suitability values can be obtained for localities with both high and low abundances. Conclusions: The use of distribution models allows estimating the maximum abundance reached by a species in a locality. Thus, it is risky in conservation to give importance to the apparently more favorable areas. However, as high abundances are not found in those localities with low favorability values, these models allow identifying those places  with a low probability to accommodate large populations. This result would provide some value to the output values of these models helping to focus the most impactful acti- vities or limiting conservation e orts when reliable local data are lacking.