Some Trends in the Development of Regional Integration Processes in Southeast Asia in the 2020s.

Abstract

This study discusses the long-term impact of the newly created institutions of the Indo-Pacific region (IPR) on the main regional integration institution of Southeast Asia (SEA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and assesses the consequences of the implementation of the IPR concept by ASEAN countries.Aim . Determine the main trends in the development of regional integration processes in Southeast Asia in the 2020s. in the context of the Indo-Pacific process.Tasks. Determine the role of SEA countries in the Indo-Pacific process; identify the nature of the influence of AUKUS on the development trends of the regional security architecture of SEA; establish the impact of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) on the sustainable economic development of SEA countries.Methods. The methodological basis of this study is based on general scientific methods (system analysis, forecasting), political science methods, approaches to the analysis of regional security complexes existing in international relations studies (B. Buzan [3], O. Waver [5], J. De Wilde [4], A. Acharya [2]) and to the analysis of regional economic integration and its stages (J. Pelkmans [10]).Results . The inclusion of ASEAN countries in the Indo-Pacific process initiated by the United States of America (USA) and its allies in the future in 2030 leadsto 1) an increase in military spending, which may indicate a reduction in the level of trust in the region, 2) a reduction in the rate of convergence of the economies of Southeast Asian countries, which may indicate a growing imbalance in the level of development of ASEAN countries.Conclusions . The implementation of the IPR concept by ASEAN countries leads to the erosion of the “ASEAN-centricity” of regional institutions in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as to the projected reduction in the effectiveness of ASEAN in achieving the goals of a regional integration institution, namely: 1) an increase in military spending in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in the 2020s, including in the ASEAN countries, indicating about the declining level of trust in relations with the PRC, leading to a decrease in the effectiveness of ASEAN diplomatic mechanisms to resolve existing disputes with China over the South China Sea; 2) the pace of catching-up development of poor Southeast Asian countries in the 2020s. are reduced, the implementation of IPEF will only be able to ensure some uneven economic growth in the most developed countries of Southeast Asia, it is becoming increasingly difficult for poor countries to catch up with the more developed countries of Southeast Asia in their level of economic development, and ASEAN’s goal of ensuring equitable economic development is becoming less achievable.