Some Timber Product Market and Trade Implications of an Invasive Defoliator: The Case of Asian Lymantria in the United States

Abstract

Abstract US policy and forest product industry decisionmakers need quantitative information about the magnitude of timber product market impacts from the possible introduction of an exotic and potentially dangerous defoliating forest pest. We applied the Global Forest Products Model to evaluate the effects on the United States of an invasion by the Asian gypsy (Lymantria dispar L.) and/or nun (Lymantria monacha L.) moths. Results suggest that the current ban on softwood log imports from the Russian Far East has little effect, beyond what market forces alone would do, on the likelihood of the introduction of the pests in the country. However, an introduction of the pests in the United States, by the timber trade or other means, could have severe impacts on the timber product market, particularly if the United States' trading partners responded by banning imports of US logs.