Some statistical aspects of the monitoring of GM plants

Abstract

There are several challenges in the monitoring of: (1) long-term effects of GM plants on the environment, and (2) effects that may be small in terms population change but significant in terms of the conservation of biodiversity. The difficulties are compounded by variability in environmental conditions between sites and years. Some examples will be given from the Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT crops in the UK. However, the talk will focus on more recent developments, including:(1) LandsFACTS software developed during the SIGMEA project for modeling rotations that might be used in risk management (see "http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/pie/LandSFACTS/":http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/pie/LandSFACTS/and "http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LandSFACTS/model.php":http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LandSFACTS/model.php);(2) the use of the SADIE system to analyse spatial information to detect environmental change(see "http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/pie/sadie/SADIE_home_page_1.htm":http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/pie/sadie/SADIE_home_page_1.htm);(3) the analysis of models for robustness and sensitivity, with particular reference to amathematical model for the effect of Bt maize on non-target lepidoptera(see "http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/01/05/rspb.2009.2091.abstract":http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/01/05/rspb.2009.2091.abstract).