Abstract
Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation. Both the level of urbanization and the “Youth Bulge” effect have proven to be particularly reliable indicators for predicting protest events. However, given that in the course of economic development these processes often occur simultaneously, it seems logical to put forward the hypothesis that the combined effect of urbanization growth and an increase in the number of young people will be a more relevant factor for predicting protests. Our study of cross-national time series from 1950 to 2016 shows that the combined effect of these two parameters is an extremely strong predictor of anti-government protests in a single country, even more so than traditional indicators such as democratization, per capita GDP, and the level of education.
Highlights
Демографические изменения, связанные с переходом от традиционной к современной экономике, лежат в основе многих современных теорий формирования протеста
Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation
Our study of cross-national time series from 1950 to 2016 shows that the combined effect of these two parameters is an extremely strong predictor of anti-government protests in a single country, even more so than traditional indicators such as democratization, per capita GDP, and the level of education
Summary
PhD, доктор исторических наук, профессор, заведующий лабораторией мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации, Национальный исследовательский университет. «Высшая школа экономики» Главный научный сотрудник, Институт Африки Российской академии наук
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